eFG% vs TS%: Which Basketball Shooting Metric Is More Accurate?

Measuring how efficiently an NNBA player scores is a key part of today’s sports analysis. For many years, field goal percentage was the main way to get the extra value of three-pointers, giving a better sense of scoring efficiency during regular play.

True Shooting Percentage (TS%) also includes free throws, adding another layer to efficiency analysis. Each stat has its own use, and which one is more accurate depends on what part of a player’s performance you want to measure.

The Formula Behind Effective Field Goal Percentage

This metric is simple to calculate but makes a big difference. It rewards players who make three-pointers by adding half the number of made threes to their total field goals, then dividing by total shots taken.

Formula of eFG%=FGAFGM+0.5×3PM

For example, a player who makes 4 out of 10 two-pointers has the same eFG% as someone who makes 3 out of 10 three-pointers, since both score 8 points on 10 shots (40%). Regular field goal percentage would say the first player is more efficient (40% vs. 30%).

The main advantage of this metric is that it focuses only on live-ball situations:

• It measures pure shooting ability during active play.

• It accurately reflects how a player's shot selection affects team spacing.

• It removes the noise of foul calls and referee whistles from the evaluation.

Enter True Shooting Percentage

True Shooting Percentage gives a complete look at scoring by counting every possession that ends with a shot, including free throws. The formula uses points scored, field goal attempts, and free throw attempts, with a constant to adjust for different types of free throws.

Formula of TS% = 2×(FGA+0.44×FTA)PTS

Since free throws are the most efficient way to score, players who often get fouled see their numbers go up. For example, a guard who doesn’t shoot well from the field but is great at drawing fouls can still have top-level efficiency.

Comparing the Two Metrics

Neither metric is wrong; they just answer different questions. Picking the right one depends on what you want to analyze.

• Contextual Accuracy: If you want to know how well a player shoots in certain situations, neither metric is always better. Each gives its own insight. Comparing them helps you decide which to use for better analysis.

• Possession Efficiency: If you want to see how many points a player scores per possession, True Shooting Percentage is best. It counts all points scored compared to all chances used.

• Role Dependency: Perimeter players who take a lot of catch-and-shoot shots are best judged by their live-ball efficiency. Stars who handle the ball a lot and draw fouls need the full picture, including free throws.

Isolating Live-Ball Value vs. Total Efficiency

Choosing between these stats comes down to whether you want to focus on just live-ball play or the whole picture. The live-ball metric shows how well a player shoots and spaces the floor, without free throws, and highlights what they do while the game is moving.

In short, eFG% and TS% each give different but useful information. Use eFG% to focus on pure shooting and spacing, and TS% to get a full picture of a player’s scoring. Pick the one that fits your goal, or use both for a better understanding of shooting efficiency.

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