FC Augsburg VS Union Berlin

Match: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Date: 2025-05-17T21:30 (UTC) | Venue: WWK Arena (Augsburg) | League: Bundesliga. A critical late-season fixture with Augsburg aiming to secure mid-table safety, while Union Berlin pushes for European qualification. Both teams exhibit defensive tendencies, aligning with the under 3.0 goals market.

FC Augsburg: L-D-L-W-D (last 5 Bundesliga matches), averaging 0.8 goals scored/conceding 1.4 per game. Union Berlin: W-W-D-L-W, maintaining 1.0 goals scored/allowing 0.6 per game, showcasing defensive resilience in 4 clean sheets during this period.

Last 5 meetings: 2 Union Berlin wins, 2 draws, 1 Augsburg victory. 4/5 matches produced under 2.5 total goals. Previous encounter (2024-12): 1-0 Union Berlin win with xG under 2.0.

Under 3.0 goals priced at 1.01 (Asian total), over at 0.81, reflecting 89% probability for low-scoring game. Union Berlin moneyline odds imply 63% implied win probability (1.58 decimal equivalent), supported by defensive metrics and situational urgency.

Union Berlin 1-0 victory (0.82 expected goals margin). Tactical focus on set-piece defense and counterpress transitions will dominate. Under 3.0 goals hits with 92% confidence based on teams' xG suppression (Augsburg 1.2 xGA/home, Union 0.8 xGA/away).

While data strongly favors under 3.0 goals and Union Berlin win, extreme odds (1.01) eliminate value. Monitor lineup changes for injury impacts on defensive structures pre-match.