What happens to the teams who top the Premier League at Christmas?

Leading the Premier League at Christmas does not guarantee the title, as historical data shows that only 17 out of the past 33 Christmas leaders have gone on to win the championship. Arsenal, in particular, have experienced this disappointment multiple times, including last season when they spent 248 days at the top but were overtaken by Manchester City. In fact, Arsenal have been top at Christmas on four previous occasions without winning the title.

Arsenal's Premier League triumphs in 1997-98, 2001-02, and 2003-04 all came from behind, with the 1997-98 season seeing them overcome a 13-point deficit at Christmas—the largest ever overturned by a champion. In contrast, recent seasons have highlighted their struggles to maintain leads, such as in 2022-23 when a five-point Christmas advantage turned into a five-point title loss to City, and in 2023-24 when a six-point lead with a game in hand resulted in a two-point deficit.

Liverpool also faced similar challenges, leading at Christmas four times without winning the title until their breakthrough in 2019-20 under Jürgen Klopp, who transformed a Christmas lead into a 99-point championship season. This parallels Arsenal's current situation under Mikel Arteta, who is in his fifth full campaign with two near-misses, raising questions about the squad's ability to sustain their form through the final stretch.

Manchester City's recent dominance adds to the uncertainty, as they have been the team to catch Christmas leaders in five of the past seasons. More than half of City's nine league titles have come from positions other than first at Christmas, including a remarkable 2020-21 campaign where they were eighth at Christmas and still won. Currently second and two points behind Arsenal, City are on a seven-game winning streak, with Pep Guardiola's teams historically improving in the second half of the season.

City's relentless finishes in recent years underscore their threat, such as in 2022-23 when they won 13 of their final 15 games to overtake Arsenal, and the following season with 18 wins and three draws from their last 21 matches. This pattern suggests that Arsenal's Christmas lead, while promising, faces a significant challenge from City's proven ability to surge late in the season.