The stats say it all. Topping the Premier League at Christmas is no guarantee of the title

Arsenal is currently leading the Premier League at Christmas in the 2025 season, but the team is advised against premature celebration as historical trends suggest this position does not guarantee winning the title.

Manager Mikel Arteta recalls painful experiences from 2022 and 2023 when Arsenal topped the table at Christmas but were ultimately overtaken by Manchester City for the championship. Historically, Arsenal has been in first place at Christmas four times in the Premier League era and has never gone on to secure the title from that position, making it a traditionally bad omen for the club.

In contrast, Manchester City, led by Pep Guardiola, has won the title on four occasions when not leading at Christmas, which may encourage them despite their current second-place standing. Arteta, however, emphasizes focusing on present performance and consistency rather than past failures, noting that the team's ability to maintain a high level of play in difficult situations is key to their belief.

Statistical data shows that in the 33 seasons of the Premier League, the team leading at Christmas has won the championship 17 times, representing just over 51% of the cases. Arsenal had initially built a significant lead but recently struggled in away games, earning only two points from a possible nine, which reduced their advantage.

Currently, Arsenal holds a two-point lead over Manchester City, having reclaimed the top spot after a 1-0 victory against Everton, which ended a winless streak on the road. This narrow win highlights the competitive nature of the league and the ongoing challenge for Arsenal to break their historical curse of failing to convert Christmas leads into titles.