NBA win totals: Spurs have the inside edge on league’s best record

As the NBA season enters its final stretch, only three teams—the Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs—are in serious contention for the league's best regular-season record. The Pistons currently hold the top spot at 44-14, leading the Thunder (46-16) by half a game and the Spurs (43-16) by two games. This tight race is notable given the Thunder's explosive 24-1 start, which seemed to position them as clear favorites until the Spurs defeated them in the NBA Cup semifinals, shifting the season's momentum.

Injuries have also influenced the standings, with the Thunder battling to maintain their position despite key rotation players missing significant time. Meanwhile, the Pistons capitalized on this opportunity, rising to the top over the past two months. With roughly 20 games remaining, the margins are extremely thin, and all three teams have a legitimate chance to finish with the best record.

Analyzing the remaining schedules reveals reasons to believe the Spurs could overtake both rivals. Since their NBA Cup semifinal win over the Thunder, the Spurs have been exceptional, boasting a plus-10.1 Net Rating—tied for the best in the NBA. They have nine games left against top-six teams from either conference, with six of those at home, including matchups against tough opponents like the Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets. The Spurs have already beaten the Celtics and Nuggets on the road this season and lead the season series against the Rockets.

In comparison, the Thunder also face nine games against top-six teams, with six at home, including two against the Celtics and contests against the Nuggets, Pistons, and Minnesota Timberwolves. The Pistons, however, have a more challenging path: they have nine games against top-six teams but only four at home, along with the most remaining road games (14) and the second-most back-to-back sets (five) in the league. Additionally, the Pistons must play the Spurs and Thunder once more on the road, having already lost to the Spurs at home and narrowly beaten the Thunder without two of their key players.

Despite the Spurs' strong performance and favorable schedule, oddsmakers give them the lowest chance to finish with the best record. The Thunder are favored at -290 (68% implied probability), followed by the Pistons at +300 (23%), and the Spurs at +900 (9%). The analysis argues that these odds undervalue the Spurs, who are recommended as a value pick to win the most regular-season games and have the best record post-All-Star break.

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