Supercomputer’s UCL Forecast: Who Will Advance?

The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League league phase resumes after a six-week break, with two matchdays remaining to determine qualification. The top eight teams advance directly to the last 16, while those finishing 9th to 24th enter a play-off round for the remaining knockout spots. The bottom 12 teams, along with the eight play-off losers, are eliminated from European competition for the season.

Arsenal leads the table with a perfect 18 points from six games and is on course to win all eight league phase matches. They have a 93.9% chance to finish top and a 100% simulated probability of reaching the last 16.

Bayern Munich (15 points) is strongly positioned to join Arsenal in automatic qualification, with a 99.1% chance. Paris Saint-Germain (83.0%) and Manchester City (89.9%) also have high probabilities, while Atalanta (59.9%) faces a tougher challenge despite being fourth.

Liverpool, currently outside the top eight, has a 63.4% chance to finish in the top eight. Barcelona needs at least one win from its final two games to contend for automatic qualification but has only a 48.7% simulated chance of making the top eight. Real Madrid, currently seventh, has a 58.3% chance to secure a top-eight finish.

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